NCAA Tournament March Madness

#134 Fresno St

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

Fresno State’s profile reads like a team that will need to win the conference tournament to reach the NCAA field because its resume offers few marquee victories and several damaging defeats. The best moments — a convincing neutral-site win over Pepperdine and a clear road victory at San Jose State, plus home wins over Colorado State and Wyoming — show the squad can beat solid conference foes and protect a couple of key dates. The worst moments, however, are hard to ignore: a lopsided road loss at Arkansas, heavy setbacks at San Diego State and New Mexico, and home defeats to Utah State and Nevada that strip away the value of those better wins. With a stretch of winnable home dates including UNLV and Air Force and an opportunity to add an important road win, Fresno State still has ways to strengthen its case, but the combination of limited signature wins and a string of bad losses explains why the only secure path to the bracket runs through the conference crown.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/5SC Upstate294L67-66
11/8Long Beach St242W82-62
11/12UC San Diego119L78-73
11/15Utah Valley92W75-74
11/18SF Austin91W80-78
11/21New Orleans201W85-76
11/26(N)Pepperdine275W76-53
11/30CS Bakersfield315L76-71
12/6@Arkansas24L82-58
12/10@CS Northridge186L89-87
12/20@UNLV133L84-72
12/30Utah St32L72-63
1/3Nevada55L66-65
1/6@San Jose St251W70-55
1/10@San Diego St43L71-52
1/13Colorado St100W79-69
1/17Wyoming108W63-60
1/21@New Mexico44L83-74
1/24Grand Canyon65L68-57
1/31@Air Force346W79-62
2/3UNLV13361%
2/7@Nevada5517%
2/10@Utah St328%
2/14Air Force34695%
2/17@Wyoming10831%
2/21New Mexico4426%
2/24@Colorado St10028%
2/28Boise St5936%
3/3San Jose St25182%
3/7@Grand Canyon6519%