NCAA Tournament March Madness Bubble Watch: UMBC

NCAA Tournament March Madness

#275 UMBC

Bubble Watch | Bracketology

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

UMBC's résumé reads like a team that can win its league but has yet to deliver the kind of eye-catching victories that earn an at-large nod. The high points are a gritty road victory at Bucknell and a competitive showing at Dayton while narrow home wins over Wagner and New Hampshire show the roster can close tight games. Those positives are offset by damaging setbacks such as the blowout at George Washington, heavy road defeats at South Florida and Georgetown and disappointing home losses to Buffalo and Army, leaving the résumé light on marquee wins and revealing defensive vulnerabilities. The remainder of the schedule hands the Retrievers manageable home dates against NJIT and UMass Lowell along with higher-value chances on the road at Vermont and Albany, but unless UMBC turns those road opportunities into signature results or captures the America East automatic berth it is safest to view the team as needing the conference title to reach the tournament.

Date	Opponent	Ranking	Outcome
11/8	@Dayton	77	L77-71
11/11	@Morgan St	361	W81-79
11/16	Wagner	328	W71-70
11/19	@G Washington	74	L89-52
11/29	Delaware St	359	W71-57
12/3	@Georgetown	101	L90-81
12/6	@Bucknell	324	W73-66
12/9	Buffalo	184	L83-79
12/12	Army	335	L63-60
12/21	@South Florida	80	L94-69
12/29	@Coppin St	364	W93-59
1/8	Maine	351	W69-62
1/10	New Hampshire	319	W75-74
1/15	@Bryant	345	L79-74
1/19	@Binghamton	362	W78-60
1/22	NJIT	331	75%
1/24	MA Lowell	303	66%
1/29	@Vermont	222	28%
1/31	@SUNY Albany	296	43%
2/5	Binghamton	362	90%
2/12	@Maine	351	63%
2/14	@New Hampshire	319	50%
2/19	Vermont	222	49%
2/21	SUNY Albany	296	65%
2/26	Bryant	345	80%
2/28	@MA Lowell	303	45%
3/3	@NJIT	331	54%