NCAA Tournament March Madness

#330 Air Force

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

Air Force’s résumé is built on expected home wins over Alabama State, SIUE, and IUPUI, but those highlights are drowned out by damaging nonconference losses such as the road defeat at Belmont and setbacks to Austin Peay and Pacific that leave the profile thin. A narrow road loss at Navy and a stumble at home to North Colorado reinforce a theme of struggling to win away from home against even modest competition. The Mountain West schedule includes heavyweights like San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, and Colorado State and the absence of any signature road or neutral victory against those teams keeps the resume from trending upward. Upcoming home dates with Fresno State and UNLV and trips to San Jose State and New Mexico are clear opportunities to change that narrative, but until those chances are converted the combination of soft best wins and ugly losses makes the path forward hinge on flipping a few key conference results.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/3@Belmont74L79-63
11/8Austin Peay192L74-54
11/11LIU Brooklyn234L76-72
11/15Miami OH120L76-61
11/19Alabama St255W66-64
11/21SIUE224W77-63
11/23IUPUI346W98-85
11/26N Colorado162L71-53
11/29(N)South Dakota283L80-63
12/3Pacific123L80-65
12/7@Navy196L61-56
12/17@San Diego St461%
12/30Wyoming9713%
1/3@UNLV1328%
1/6Utah St414%
1/10New Mexico789%
1/13@San Jose St18415%
1/17Nevada8711%
1/20@Colorado St592%
1/24@Boise St441%
1/31Fresno St17329%
2/3@Grand Canyon1025%
2/7San Diego St465%
2/10Colorado St597%
2/14@Fresno St17313%
2/17@New Mexico783%
2/21UNLV13220%
2/24San Jose St18432%
2/28@Wyoming975%
3/3Grand Canyon10214%
3/7@Nevada874%