NCAA Tournament March Madness
#158 Valparaiso
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Projection: need to automatically qualify
Valparaiso’s profile explains the projection because its best moments — a statement home win over W Michigan, road victories at Cleveland State and Drake, and a razor thin showing at Marquette — demonstrate upside but are outweighed by resume damage from a blowout at Kentucky, a heavy loss at Northwestern and a lopsided defeat at Illinois State plus agonizing setbacks to Belmont and Bradley that leave the team with little margin for error. The program showed it can win away from home and even pick up a neutral-site win over Indiana State in the league event, yet the absence of a true marquee nonconference victory and the accumulation of bad losses make an at large case fragile. Given how the season played out the clearest path to the national field is to secure the automatic qualifier.
| Date | Opponent | Ranking | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/4 | E Illinois | 324 | W66-63 |
| 11/7 | @Kentucky | 27 | L107-59 |
| 11/12 | Nicholls St | 232 | W68-63 |
| 11/16 | Bryant | 355 | W68-50 |
| 11/19 | @Cleveland St | 322 | W90-75 |
| 11/26 | Southern Indiana | 339 | L64-56 |
| 11/29 | W Michigan | 273 | W84-55 |
| 12/2 | @Marquette | 86 | L75-72 |
| 12/13 | UNC Wilmington | 110 | L73-70 |
| 12/16 | @Northwestern | 66 | L86-70 |
| 12/21 | Murray St | 120 | L85-79 |
| 12/29 | @Northern Iowa | 70 | L58-48 |
| 1/1 | @S Illinois | 117 | L75-70 |
| 1/4 | IL Chicago | 105 | W66-59 |
| 1/7 | Illinois St | 103 | W77-71 |
| 1/10 | @Murray St | 120 | L92-79 |
| 1/13 | @Belmont | 67 | L78-74 |
| 1/17 | Northern Iowa | 70 | W54-44 |
| 1/21 | S Illinois | 117 | W69-63 |
| 1/28 | Belmont | 67 | L78-77 |
| 1/31 | @Indiana St | 200 | W76-72 |
| 2/3 | @Bradley | 122 | L72-65 |
| 2/6 | Evansville | 307 | W70-63 |
| 2/9 | @Drake | 194 | W81-76 |
| 2/12 | @Illinois St | 103 | L86-64 |
| 2/15 | Indiana St | 200 | W76-75 |
| 2/18 | Bradley | 122 | W79-72 |
| 2/21 | @IL Chicago | 105 | W71-67 |
| 2/25 | Drake | 194 | W74-71 |
| 2/28 | @Evansville | 307 | L80-79 |
| 3/5 | (N)Indiana St | 200 | W63-62 |
| 3/6 | (N)Bradley | 122 | L90-84 |