NCAA Tournament March Madness

#321 Wagner

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Projected seed: 16 (automatic qualifier, play-in game) (automatic qualifier)

The projection makes sense because Wagner’s résumé shows a lone high-visibility moment on the road at Manhattan but is otherwise defined by damaging outings at major programs such as VCU, Seton Hall and Georgetown that far outweigh competitive but unrewarding defeats at Fordham and UMBC. The bulk of the schedule runs through submajor opponents like Stonehill, St Francis PA, Mercyhurst, Chicago State, New Haven and Central Connecticut, so expected wins there do little to build a résumé, and road and neutral success beyond Manhattan is scarce. That leaves the program dependent on a breakthrough win at a place like Maryland or a full run through the conference tournament to change the committee’s view, which is why it sits in a very low seed projection for now.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/3@VCU50L103-74
11/7@Seton Hall61L68-61
11/11@Fordham233L63-61
11/16@UMBC294L71-70
11/22@Georgetown80L92-75
11/26@Manhattan314W103-101
12/2@Maryland945%
12/17MD E Shore33768%
1/2@Chicago St35655%
1/4Stonehill34068%
1/8St Francis PA35977%
1/10Mercyhurst32061%
1/17@New Haven35153%
1/19@F Dickinson36058%
1/23@Le Moyne33245%
1/25@LIU Brooklyn23525%
1/29Central Conn24147%
1/31F Dickinson36078%
2/5Le Moyne33267%
2/7@Central Conn24126%
2/12LIU Brooklyn23546%
2/14@Stonehill34046%
2/19@Mercyhurst32039%
2/21@St Francis PA35957%
2/26New Haven35174%
2/28Chicago St35676%