NCAA Tournament March Madness Bubble Watch: Dayton

NCAA Tournament March Madness

#65 Dayton

Bubble Watch | Bracketology

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Projection: likely out

Dayton’s resume is built around a signature road win at Marquette and a neutral-site victory over Georgetown that show it can beat respected opponents away from Dayton, but those highs are undercut by damaging setbacks such as the trip to Cincinnati, narrow neutral losses to BYU and Virginia, and a home stumble to Liberty that a committee will remember. The staff has shown it can sell a stingy defensive identity in those good wins while the offense has been inconsistent in top-level matchups, which leaves the profile looking uneven. A run of manageable league opponents at home gives the Flyers a clear chance to rack up quality results, while true tests on the road at St. Louis, VCU and Richmond are the opportunities to erase the bad losses and flip the narrative. How Dayton handles those road dates will determine whether the strong moments end up outweighing the blemishes.

Date	Opponent	Ranking	Outcome
11/3	Canisius	347	W88-48
11/8	UMBC	290	W77-71
11/11	@Cincinnati	72	L74-62
11/15	Bethune-Cookman	262	W91-82
11/19	@Marquette	115	W77-71
11/22	NC Central	351	W74-55
11/27	(N)Georgetown	104	W84-79
11/28	(N)BYU	11	L83-79
12/2	ETSU	136	W88-71
12/6	(N)Virginia	23	L86-73
12/13	North Florida	345	W84-61
12/16	Florida St	110	W97-69
12/20	Liberty	103	L64-61
12/31	Fordham	192	89%
1/3	@Loyola-Chicago	298	89%
1/6	G Washington	83	65%
1/13	@Duquesne	131	61%
1/16	Loyola-Chicago	298	96%
1/21	@La Salle	263	84%
1/24	@St Joseph's PA	196	76%
1/27	Rhode Island	108	74%
1/30	@St Louis	39	27%
2/3	St Bonaventure	114	77%
2/6	@VCU	42	29%
2/15	Davidson	126	79%
2/18	@George Mason	79	42%
2/21	Duquesne	131	80%
2/24	St Louis	39	48%
2/27	@G Washington	83	43%
3/3	@Richmond	99	50%
3/6	VCU	42	50%