NCAA Tournament March Madness

#16 Louisville

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Projected seed: 6

Louisville’s projection reflects a resume with clear highs and worrying lows that a committee would weigh closely: the Cardinals boast a signature victory over Kentucky and an impressive road triumph at California plus neutral-site wins over Cincinnati and Indiana that showcase the offense’s ceiling, but those flashes are tempered by lopsided defeats at Arkansas and Tennessee and home setbacks to Duke and Virginia that expose defensive inconsistencies and damage the quality-of-wins narrative. Road success has been uneven, with a narrow loss at Stanford hinting at resilience but not enough true road résumés against top opponents to erase the bad losses. The remaining slate contains both safe chances to shore up the record in games at home and a neutral test against Baylor and multiple true road tests at Duke, SMU, North Carolina and Clemson that offer clear pathways to improve the profile or leave it largely where it stands. Overall the team looks tournament-capable because of its high-end wins and offensive firepower, yet vulnerable in seeding because the severe losses and limited marquee road victories keep the resume from vaulting into the top tiers.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/3S Carolina St360W104-45
11/6Jackson St332W106-70
11/11Kentucky25W96-88
11/15Ohio221W106-81
11/21(N)Cincinnati54W74-64
11/24E Michigan188W87-46
11/26NJIT331W104-47
12/3@Arkansas21L89-80
12/6(N)Indiana38W87-78
12/13Memphis97W99-73
12/16@Tennessee23L83-62
12/20Montana163W94-54
12/30@California75W90-70
1/2@Stanford76L80-76
1/6Duke3L84-73
1/10Boston College148W75-62
1/13Virginia12L79-70
1/17@Pittsburgh98W100-59
1/24Virginia Tech5685%
1/26@Duke323%
1/31SMU3174%
2/4Notre Dame8190%
2/7@Wake Forest7072%
2/9NC State2772%
2/14(N)Baylor4874%
2/17@SMU3154%
2/21Georgia Tech12795%
2/23@North Carolina3354%
2/28@Clemson2852%
3/3Syracuse7188%
3/7@Miami FL3758%