NCAA Tournament March Madness

#163 Toledo

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

Toledo’s profile balances bright offensive performances with damaging defeats, leaving the committee focused on whether the team can finish strong. Their most convincing moments came away from home and on neutral floors, notably the road win at Wright St and the neutral-site victory over Troy that showed the offense can produce in hostile settings. Those highs are undercut by heavy setbacks, including the lopsided loss at Michigan St and surprising defeats at Oakland and Robert Morris plus a nonconference loss to Marshall that raise questions about consistency. The remaining schedule hands Toledo clear opportunities to change the narrative with meaningful road tests at Kent and Akron and home dates against Ball St, N Illinois and Buffalo where victories would bolster the resume. How Toledo handles those road dates and avoids further damaging slips will determine whether its offensive upside can overcome inconsistency when the committee evaluates the body of work.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/3South Alabama194L76-74
11/8Marshall166L85-73
11/11@Wright St140W81-71
11/15Detroit275W90-83
11/19Youngstown St174W92-75
11/24(N)Troy132W75-68
11/26(N)Belmont71L87-72
12/6@Oakland144L98-97
12/13@Robert Morris186L75-70
12/16@Michigan St15L92-69
12/30W Michigan27279%
1/3@C Michigan33375%
1/6@N Illinois32273%
1/9Miami OH10744%
1/10Miami OH10744%
1/13Ohio19167%
1/17@Kent13532%
1/20@Massachusetts17742%
1/24Bowling Green11347%
1/27@Akron5612%
1/31Ball St31487%
2/3Kent13553%
2/11@W Michigan27260%
2/14@Bowling Green11326%
2/21E Michigan19968%
2/24N Illinois32288%
2/28@Ohio19145%
3/3@Miami OH10724%
3/6Buffalo17263%