NCAA Tournament March Madness

#161 Toledo

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

Toledo’s profile screams the kind of resume that should be settled by winning the conference tournament because the season is a patchwork of promising midmajor wins without a true signature nonconference victory and several pinpoint damaging losses; its best moments include a neutral-site triumph over Troy and gritty road wins at Wright State, Central Michigan and Northern Illinois along with an explosive home performance against Ohio, while its worst moments feature a blowout at Michigan State, a brutal night on the road at Oakland and nonconference setbacks to Belmont and Robert Morris that a selection committee would mark as red flags. The remaining stretch gives Columbus a clear roadmap to repair the resume with a critical road trip to Akron, winnable tests against Bowling Green, Ball State and Kent, a series of resume-building road dates including Ohio and Miami Ohio and a home chance against Buffalo. Unless those opportunities turn into true road or neutral-site statement wins, the combination of a thin nonconference ledger and a handful of harmful defeats makes the safer path to the NCAA tournament an automatic conference qualification.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/3South Alabama208L76-74
11/8Marshall167L85-73
11/11@Wright St146W81-71
11/15Detroit285W90-83
11/19Youngstown St211W92-75
11/24(N)Troy113W75-68
11/26(N)Belmont63L87-72
12/6@Oakland129L98-97
12/13@Robert Morris198L75-70
12/16@Michigan St9L92-69
12/30W Michigan253W84-79
1/3@C Michigan322W78-75
1/6@N Illinois315W75-61
1/9Miami OH89L87-73
1/13Ohio221W101-85
1/16@Kent147L87-84
1/20@Massachusetts183L84-82
1/24Bowling Green11248%
1/27@Akron6013%
1/31Ball St31387%
2/3Kent14757%
2/7@James Madison23954%
2/11@W Michigan25357%
2/14@Bowling Green11227%
2/21E Michigan18867%
2/24N Illinois31587%
2/28@Ohio22151%
3/3@Miami OH8920%
3/6Buffalo18466%