NCAA Tournament March Madness

#130 Troy

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

Troy’s profile pairs an attention grabbing road victory at San Diego State and gritty road wins at Kent and Furman with a razor thin loss at USC, showing the roster can win away from home against recognized opponents. That promising thread is offset by puzzling setbacks at Loyola Marymount and Cal State Northridge and a home loss to West Georgia plus a neutral defeat in Toledo, results that create real damage because they are hard to justify on a tournament resume. In conference the team has beaten Marshall, Texas State and South Alabama and picked up a road victory at UAB while stumbling at Arkansas State, so the league body of work is respectable but not yet bulletproof. The remainder of the schedule hands Troy a run of mostly winnable opportunities at home and a few meaningful road tests at Old Dominion and Southern Miss along with trips to Louisiana and ULM that are clear chances to polish the résumé. How the team handles those chances, particularly by avoiding more bad losses and by adding another road or neutral win over a recognized opponent, will determine whether the big wins outweigh the ugly setbacks.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/3@Kent150W103-97
11/7@Furman152W64-61
11/14@Loy Marymount132L74-63
11/16@CS Northridge215L94-85
11/18@San Diego St52W108-107
11/20@USC49L107-106
11/24(N)Toledo166L75-68
11/26(N)St Francis PA358W74-64
12/1West Georgia322L93-89
12/14@UAB110W86-85
12/20Marshall165W70-63
12/31Texas St264W100-80
1/3South Alabama201W59-49
1/7@Arkansas St134L86-74
1/10@Louisiana325W90-70
1/14Southern Miss20074%
1/17Arkansas St13462%
1/21@Old Dominion24263%
1/24@Ga Southern23460%
1/29James Madison22378%
1/31Appalachian St23680%
2/4@Georgia St29573%
2/11@Texas St26468%
2/14@Southern Miss20054%
2/18@ULM35288%
2/21@South Alabama20154%
2/24Louisiana32592%
2/27ULM35296%