NCAA Tournament March Madness

#189 Buffalo

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

Buffalo’s profile makes it clear that the team’s only reliable path to the national tournament is winning the Mid-American tournament because its résumé features solid but non-marquee wins and a collection of damaging conference setbacks. The high points are real: a road victory at DePaul and road successes at UMBC and Western Michigan plus neutral-site wins over VMI and Bucknell show the program can win away from its building, yet none of those results reads as a signature scalp. The low points are equally consequential: an ugly result at home against Akron, losses to Ohio and a tough defeat at Miami Ohio have left conspicuous blemishes and exposed defensive lapses that committees penalize. The remaining slate gives Buffalo obvious chances to rebuild credibility at home against Northern Illinois and Central Michigan and on the road at Massachusetts and Akron, but without wins in the league semifinals and final the overall profile will still look short of the kind of résumé that earns an at-large bid.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/3Southern Miss241W85-79
11/7WI Green Bay218W83-76
11/11@DePaul112W66-53
11/18Vermont223W94-90
11/24(N)VMI360W78-70
11/26(N)Bucknell331W73-71
11/29@Canisius345W71-53
12/6St Bonaventure144L77-69
12/9@UMBC237W83-79
12/14@East Carolina261L73-70
12/20@W Michigan280W88-71
12/31@N Illinois317W81-67
1/3Ball St322W85-72
1/10@Ohio220L91-80
1/13Kent145L87-81
1/17@Miami OH84L105-102
1/20Akron67L82-63
1/23Massachusetts183L68-67
1/27@Bowling Green139W89-78
1/31Ohio220L95-83
2/3Miami OH84L73-71
2/7@South Alabama195L81-69
2/11@Ball St322W63-53
2/17N Illinois31786%
2/21@Massachusetts18338%
2/24@Akron6713%
2/28C Michigan27277%
3/3E Michigan23070%
3/6@Toledo16034%